It is better to be an outcast, a stranger in one’s own country, than an outcast from one’s self. It is better to see what is about to befall us and to resist than to retreat into the fantasies embraced by a nation of the blind.
Chris Hedges

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

Is Iran Next?

The Herald of Scotland reported today that 387 Bunker Buster bombs are being shipped to Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean in preparation for an attack on Iran.

Could Joe Biden's embarassment in Jerusalem last week have been an elaborate ruse to hide his real mission - to plan a co-op attack with Israel? At the very least, this apparent "chilling" of US/Israeli relations takes Iran's eye off the ball. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's visit to Afghanistan, last week, to visit with Afghan President Hamid Karzai in Kabul, only pours more fuel on a situation that could explode into an expanded regional war.

Despite Obama's visible "Open Hand Policy" with Iran, there is little support for a gasoline embargo on Iran. China (perhaps in response to US arms shipments to Taiwan?) and Russia have both said they would not support an embargo. Last year, a Bipartisan Policy Task Force wrote a report called, "Meeting the Challenge: Time is Running Out."
In an Op-ed that appeared in the Wall Street Journal, the authors warned that Iran could fast-track production of a nuclear device by 2010. They suggested an embargo would not work and urged the United States to prepare a contingency plan to use air strikes to take out Iran's capability. The Centre for Strategic and International Studies prepared a report entitled:
"Study on a Possible Israeli Strike on Iran's Nuclear Development Facilities", one year ago.
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Iran has said they will choke off the Suez Canal and cut oil shipments to the west if attacked. The "Blu" series bunker-busters were thought to be incapable of penetrating Iran's hardened sites. A new type of bomb called the "Massive Ordnance Penetrator" (pictured above) was said not to be ready until July 2010. The MOP was developed to hit deep re-enforced sites like those thought to exist in Iran.

The likelihood of an attack, without the requisite "last ditch" attempt to find a UN solution, is not expected. However, if Iran should attempt to close the Suez or stage an attack on its neighbours, all bets are off. In any case, today the world took one step closer to a new conflict that could provide the "Black Swan" event that catapults the world into a new oil crisis and almost certain Global Depression.

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